In January 2013 the UK authorities set a mark to supply 75 of its electricity from renewable energy resources by 2025. Harmonizing to several surveies, the UK has a great onshore and peculiarly offshore wind possible [ EEA ] , [ offshore_valuation ] . On that footing our company has the ability to work this available sum of air current energy and to present 30 % of the UK electricity from onshore and offshore air current farms by 2025.
2. Onshore and offshore air current farms deployment
In order to happen the appropriate capacity of the air current farms that will be installed, foremost the electricity demand in 2025 should be estimated. In this survey the ‘Greenest ‘ scenario from the study of Sustainability First for the electricity demand in 2025 is adopted, which indicates that it would be 320TWh [ GB_Electricity_Demand_2010_and_2025 ] . Taking into consideration that the transmittal and distribution losingss are about 7.5 % [ Digest_of_UK_Energy_Statistics_2012 ] the existent demand would be 344TWh. Thus our air current farms have to bring forth 103.2TWh yearly so as to present 30 % of the electricity demand. In the following two subdivisions we investigate the appropriate capacity of onshore and offshore air current farms that should be installed taking into history their capacity factor. Furthermore the land and sea bed these wind farms will cover is calculated.
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2.1 Onshore air current farms
For the onshore air current farms we assume that the capacity factor would be 27.3 % as it is calculated by DECC for the twelvemonth 2011 [ Digest_of_UK_Energy_Statistics_2012 ] . Furthermore harmonizing to the high scenario of the study of Enviros Consulting Ltd, the available onshore air current resource in the whole UK is 18.077GW [ THE_COSTS_OF_SUPPLYING_RENEWABLE_ENERGY ] , and the energy these farms would bring forth yearly would be 43.23TWh. Using wind turbines with rated power 6.15MW and rotor diameter 126m [ RE_6M_onshore_and_offshore ] , 2940 air current turbines will be needed. Taking into consideration that each air current turbine occupies a infinite of 5Dx5D, where D is the diameter of the rotor, about 1167km2 of land will be devoted. The study of EEA indicates that in the UK the available unrestricted land is about 210,000km2 of which about 150,000km2 are agricultural country which is the most attractive for air current energy development [ EEA ] . Therefore even with the restraints it may use, the available land is equal for our onshore air current farms.
2.2 Offshore air current farms
In order to run into the mark of 30 % of electricity produced by our air current farms, 59.17TWh should be produced by offshore wind farms. Assuming that the capacity factor for offshore air current farms is 36.8 % [ Digest_of_UK_Energy_Statistics_2012 ] , 18.355GW offshore wind farms should be installed. Using the same air current turbines with the onshore we need 2985 of them. If one offshore air current turbine occupies a infinite of 7Dx7D we deduce that 2322km2 of sea bed are needed [ distance_ ( 1 ) ] . Harmonizing to several surveies the offshore wind potency of the UK is great and more specifically the available sea bed is about 117,000km2 where 60 % of this country to be located in less than 50km from shore [ EEA ] , [ offshore_valuation ] . The Crown Estate has already released the available countries for offshore air current energy deployment in Round 3 and it is obvious that this bed sea is adequate for our offshore air current farms to be installed [ round_3_offshore_wind_site_selection_at_national_and_project_levels ] .
3. Financing the air current farms
Many surveies show that cost decreases of on and offshore air current farms are traveling to be achieved in the hereafter because the engineering will go more mature, the supply concatenation will develop more, and the economic systems of graduated table for air current turbine production will increase [ EEA ] , [ IRENA_Technologies_Cost_Analysis-WIND_POWER ] . However, for the offshore air current farms it is likely in the hereafter to hold bigger installing costs than today because we move in bigger distances from the shore and in deeper H2O, but their levelised cost of energy will be lower on the evidences that they would hold bigger capacity factors [ Offshore_report ] . In this survey the levelised costs of electricity from onshore and offshore air current farms are taken by the ‘Case 6 ‘ of Mot MacDonald study [ 71-uk-electricity-generation-costs-update- ] . We assume that 50 % of the offshore air current farms will be installed closer to shore and in shallow H2O, while the other 50 % will be located in deeper H2O and farther from shore. Thus the levelised cost of electricity for onshore air current farms is assumed 85.8 & A ; lb ; /MWh and for offshore 119.2 & A ; lb ; /MWh.
Research conducted by the university of Birmingham concluded that in a competitory electricity market like in the UK the mean time-weighted grosss of the onshore and offshore air current farms would be about 32 & A ; lb ; /MWh, taking into consideration that there is non any economic support [ Market_behaviour_with_large_amounts_of_intermittent_generation ] . Therefore we can deduce that there exists a deficit between the cost and gross. In order to bridge this spread and do the investing viable, there are three support strategies which can be employed by the authorities ; the Renewable Duty Certificates ( ROCs ) , the Feed in Tariff ( FiT ) , and the Feed in Premium ( FiP ) [ large_scale_wind_power… ] . Nowadays the UK authorities is utilizing ROCs, but harmonizing to a survey conducted by the Cambridge University [ Comparison_of_feed-in_tariff_quota.. ] , the FiT mechanism seems to be more effectual. In the hereafter the UK authorities programs to reform the electricity market by presenting FiT as the support mechanism for the renewable energy [ 5349-electricity-market-reform-policy-overview ] . For this ground in this survey we consider FiT as the support mechanism, where the monetary value of energy produced by the air current farms would be fixed for the life-time of the air current farm. Assuming 10 % net income, the fixed monetary value for the onshore air current farms would be 94.4 & A ; lb ; /MWh and for the offshore 131 & A ; lb ; /MWh. Thus the public support for the onshore air current farms would be 2.697bn & A ; lb ; /year and for the offshore air current farms 5.858bn & A ; lb ; /year. Should we see that the sweeping monetary value of electricity remains steady and that the life-time of on and offshore air current farms is 25 old ages we deduce that the cumulative public financess for this venture would be about 214bn & A ; lb ; .
4. Security of electricity system
One large issue with the bulk of renewable energy systems is that they are intermittent which means that they might non be able to despatch power to the grid when it is needed. This is true for the air current energy resource excessively, where there is the possibility the air current non to blow but the demand to be high.
However, a research conducted by the Oxford University found that there is a positive correlativity between the air current power end product in the UK and the UK electricity demand patterns [ Characteristics_of_the_UK_wind_resour… ] . More specifically, they conclude that on seasonal footing the possible air current power end product is greater in winter months, when the electricity demand is higher and on diurnal footing the air current power is higher during daylight hours than overnight when once more the demand is higher. Furthermore another one really of import determination of this survey is that there is really small opportunity a large proportion of UK land country to be affected by low-wind velocity events at the same time, while by high-velocity air current events is highly rare. Therefore if the onshore and offshore air current farms are dispersed across the UK, so the electricity supply from air current energy is more secure.
However, in order to heighten the security of electricity supply, there are rather a batch options that can be adopted. One of them is to utilize energy storage ( ES ) as it is indicated by several surveies [ Overview_of_the_Energy_Storage_Systems… ] , [ Energy_storage_and_its_use… ] . However, ES has the job that in the most of the times it can non supply energy to the system for more than one twenty-four hours and in the hereafter this can besides be done by the movable demand in lower monetary value [ hassan ] . For this ground interconnectedness seems to be a better pick for the UK in order to manage the high incursion of intermittent renewable energy systems. Harmonizing to GL Garrad Hassan study, in a scenario of high incursion of renewable energy into the UK grid, interconnectedness capacity to continental Europe, such as Germany, France, Belgium and Scandinavia is considered [ hassan ] . They emphasize the importance of the connexion with Norway, where big sum of reservoir hydro capacity is deemed to be. Furthermore they imply that the interconnectedness with southern European counties, such as Spain, can supply the system with large-scale solar energy doing it more diverse. Ultimately, the bing fleet of gas-fired power workss in the UK would be a sufficient back up coevals in any utmost conditions conditions and by retrofitting them with C gaining control and storage ( CCS ) the emanations of CO2 would be low plenty [ hassan ] .
To summarize, our company is able to present 30 % of the UK electricity by onshore and offshore air current farms by 2025. More specifically, we found that 18.077GW of onshore and 18.355GW of offshore air current farms should be installed, and in order this venture to go financially executable about 8.5bn & A ; lb ; of public money have to be invested yearly through a FiT supporting mechanism. In order to reassure that there would be balance between electricity supply and demand, we suggest interconnection capacity to continental Europe and Scandinavia should be installed so as to face the intermittent air current power.