Economy And Macroeconomic Trends Of Libya Economics Essay

Libya ‘s centrally planned economic system depends chiefly upon grosss from the crude oil sector, which contributes practically all export net incomes and over half of GDP Discover More . These oil grosss and a little population give Libya one of the highest per capita GDPs in Africa. Since 2000, Libya has recorded favourable growing rates with an estimated 8.1 % growing of GDP in 2006.

Macro-economic tendency

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The GDP per capital of Libya soared by 676 % in the sixtiess and a farther 480 % in the seventiess. However such antic growing rates proved unsustainable in the face of planetary oil recession and international countenances. Consequently the GDP per capital shrank by 42 % in the 1980s. Successful variegation and integrating into the international community helped current GDP per capita to cut farther impairment to merely 3.2 % in the 1990s.

Below is a chart of tendency of gross domestic merchandise of Libya at market monetary values estimated by the International Monetary Fund with figures in 1000000s of Libyan dinars ( LYD ) .




Inflation Index

( 2000 = 100 )

Per Capita Income

( asA % of USA )



0.29 LYD





0.29 LYD





0.28 LYD





0.34 LYD





0.51 LYD





1.22 LYD



Part 1

Libya-Balance of Payments

Libya Index

The authorities ‘s balance-of-payments statement, which has been prepared yearly by the Central Bank, has provided a shorthand presentation of Libya ‘s economic dealingss with the remainder of the universe. Although balance-of-payments statements by and large may be arranged in different ways to run into different demands, they often have been presented in footings of a current history that included the exchange of goods and services and transportations ( contributions ) ; a capital history that reflected motion of direct investing, authorities adoption and loaning, and trade funding ; and a militias account demoing whether pecuniary establishments have on balance acquired or paid out foreign currencies in the other histories. The Libyan payments balance has been presented harmonizing to that expression ( see table 8, Appendix ) .

The balance-of-payments statements issued between 1960 and 1977 spelled out in dramatic manner Libya ‘s meteorologic passage from poorness to wealth. In 1960 exports ( largely agricultural ) reached their then-customary sum of less than the equivalent of US $ 10 million. Imports totaled US $ 177 million. The consequence was an unfavourable trade balance, to which was added a negative balance on the service history. The combination was hardly offset by a big point for oil company investing and by ample grant assistance from Britain, the UN, the United States, and Italy. Capital motions were minimally favourable on balance.

By 1963 the payments image was already altering quickly. Although imports had increased appreciably, exports had outstripped them, supplying a solidly favourable trade balance for the first clip in the state ‘s history. Government services and investing income ( chiefly oil company net incomes ) were about in balance, but other services ( chiefly expenditures abroad by the oil companies connected with their Libyan operations ) were increasing quickly, and goods and services showed a little debit balance. This was merely approximately offset by transportations ( gifts and parts from abroad ) , and the entire current history was in balance. The capital history showed a recognition, and the exchange militias rose by US $ 27 million.

The upward tendency continued throughout the 1970s except for 1973, 1975, and 1978, when the overall balance of payments was in shortage. The balance of payments has been to a great extent dependent on oil exports and public sector imports, and in each of those three old ages increases in imports relative to exports pushed the overall balance into shortage. Nevertheless, Libya recorded its largest balance-of- payments excess in 1980, when it reported a net addition in foreign militias of over US $ 6.7 billion.

Since 1980, nevertheless, worsening oil export grosss have pushed the overall balance into a sustained shortage, as net alterations in militias for 1981 through 1984 were all negative. In general, Libya ‘s trade balance has remained solidly positive because oil grosss, even in the 1980s, have been sufficient to cover imports of ware. The chief drain on Libya ‘s balance of payments and the beginning of much of its external payments troubles during the early and mid-1980s have been the big shortages Libya has experienced in its trade in services. The major constituents of this “ unseeable trade ” were payments to foreign advisers and contractors, every bit good as to the resident foreign workers in Libya, who customarily remitted big parts of their wages to their place states.

In response to its deteriorating balance-of-payments state of affairs in the 1980s, Libya has used several schemes. Foremost has been the pulling down on its significant militias of foreign exchange built up during the 1970s. Therefore, other than for gold militias ( which have remained reasonably stable ) , Libya ‘s entire foreign exchange militias ( including Special Drawing Rights ( SDRs ) — see Glossary, and its sedimentations with the International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) — see Glossary ) declined from US $ 13.1 billion in 1980 to US $ 9 billion in 1981, US $ 7 billion in 1982, US $ 5.2 billion in 1983, and US $ 3.6 billion in 1984. Despite this drastic diminution, in 1984 Libya ‘s militias still afforded it an estimated 5.3 months of import coverage, a figure good above the norm for comparable high-income oil exporters.

Libya has besides taken stairss to cut down remittals by foreign workers. In the 1982-83 period, aliens comprised about 47 per centum of entire productive work force. In 1984, nevertheless, the authorities reduced from 90 to 75 per centum the rewards that foreign workers were permitted to repatriate. This action, combined with the declining economic clime in Libya, sparked a flight of foreign workers. The entire figure dropped from 560,000 in 1983 to possibly 300,000 in mid-1984. In 1985 the authorities resorted to coercion, forcibly throw outing many staying workers. In August and September, more than 30,000 Tunisians and about 20,000 Egyptians were expelled. Smaller Numberss of workers from Mauritania, Mali, and Niger were besides forced to go forth. By 1986 farther ejections had dropped the figure of aliens working in Libya to fewer than 200,000.

The concluding method used by the authorities to cut down its service trade shortage has been to detain payments to contractors and to bring on them to accept swap agreements. By late 1986, Libya had fallen more than US $ 2 billion behind in its payments to contractors. In an attempt to run into its duties without pay outing its valuable foreign exchange, Libya has encouraged its creditors to accept oil instead than difficult currency in return for their services. Although many debts were settled this manner from 1982 through 1985, the crisp bead in oil monetary values in early 1986 ended such agreements. At that point, the Libyans refused to set their monetary values to universe market degrees — ensuing in a 30-percent overestimate of their oil in relation to its monetary value on the unfastened market.

Part 2

In the new Libya, authorities curates are go oning to endorse away from province control of the economic system and toward the free market as the solution to chronic unemployment and under-investment. Last month, President Gaddafi received a new program for reform from Michael Porter, a Harvard Business School professor who advises states about viing in the planetary economic system.

The survey urges Libya to diversify its economic system and pass its instruction system, but its recommendations may non go world for a long clip. There already are marks that reform will travel more easy than some idea. For illustration, the state ‘s progressive Prime Minister was demoted earlier this month and moved to supervise the National Oil Company.

Libya has had a state-run economic system for the last 36 old ages. The private sector was really limited and had really small freedom to run. Now everything is being turned around. State-owned endeavors are being lined up for denationalization, and Libyans are being encouraged to go enterprisers and take their hereafter into their ain custodies.

An of import turning point came in June 2003. Muammar Gaddafi declared that the private sector had failed, and called for the sweeping denationalization of the oil industry, and other sectors, which had been nationalized when he seized power in 1969. He called for companies to be formed that “ would non be the belongings of the province, but of Libyans. ”

“ The state is altering for the better, ” said Mohamed El Missouri, Chairman of the Libyan Businessmen Council. “ One merely has to compare it to how it was four old ages ago. Thingss have changed dramatically. Although the procedure of developing the private sector started tardily, it is steadily spread outing. ”

El Missouri, himself the Chairman of a private company called Tasharukiat Alsaqr Alakhdar for Medical Equipment & A ; Consumables, says the Businessmen Council is in regular contact with the authorities and investors.

“ We are asked for feedback on the strengths and failings in statute law that affects the concern community. Most of our work involves pass oning and raising consciousness of all sectors in our economic system to both local and foreign investors. ”

Mohamed Kanoun, Chairman of the General Union of the Chambers of Commerce and Industry, says that reorienting the economic system towards the private sector is a great challenge. “ We need to avoid the booby traps of the passage from a state-owned economic system to a free-market 1. ”

He emphasizes the part to be made by foreign investors. “ Foreign capital is really of import, peculiarly after more than two decennaries of small to none. We besides need developing and know-how in countries like concern direction. ”

The Husni Bey ( HB ) Group, started in 1944 as an import and distribution company specialising in family goods, and today owns some of Libya ‘s taking companies such as Saran Pharmaceuticals. One of the first companies to be nationalized in the 1970s, it has since re-established itself as one of the most of import private groups in Libya. It has diversified involvements runing from import-export and transportation to touristry and supplying bonded warehousing for the oil industry.

Chairman Husni Bey believes that Libya has turned over a new foliage in its history, and is now in a place to turn. He praises the authorities ‘s committedness to let the state to travel frontward and thrive through a crystalline economic system.

“ They changed the revenue enhancement jurisprudence, for illustration, which has become really just and promoting for new concerns. I would trust that people recognize these alterations and work within this model to let our economic system to come on. ”

Bey believes Libyan business communities have an of import part to do. “ I feel a demand to lend to the alterations taking topographic point. Nowadays, many concern people portion my doctrine on the private sector ; nevertheless, we need to speak to each other more and construct a deeper trust.

Part 3

Fiscal & A ; Monetary policy:

Libya ‘s overall macroeconomic public presentation in 2008 was strong, with existent GDP growth by about 3.8 per centum. However, non-oil growing was broad-based and estimated at 8 per centum. Oil end product increased somewhat at the first three quarters of the twelvemonth so declined in the last one-fourth in line with OPEC ‘s determination to cut down quotas. As a consequence, production for the twelvemonth as a whole was similar to its 2007 degree. Inflation rose in 2008 to about 10 per centum due to higher international trade good monetary values and a pronounced addition in public outgo.

The financial excess remained at about 25 per centum of GDP in 2008. Gross increased by about 37 per centum due to higher oil monetary values and enhanced revenue enhancement and imposts disposal. At the same clip, overall outgo rose by an estimated 45 per centum, reflecting big additions in both current and capital spendings. Spending under the Wealth Distribution Program ( WDP ) was limited to LD 3.3 billion ( equivalent to about 3 per centum of GDP ) , compared to LDA 4.6 billion approved in the budget

The 2009 budget envisages a little nominal diminution in public outgo, seting an terminal to three old ages of big financial enlargement. The little diminution in overall outgo reflects a 20 per centum decrease in capital disbursement and a 25 per centum addition in current spendings, which includes a 16 per centum projected addition in the pay measure. The latter is due in big portion to the return to the civil service paysheet of a part of the public employees that were antecedently transferred to a cardinal labour office for retrenchment to the private sector. The overall financial place is expected to register a excess of about 10 per centum of GDP inA 2009 despite the jutting diminution in oil gross by about 40 per centum.

The external current history excess remained high at about 41 per centum of GDP in 2008. The rapid addition in imports ( about 30 per centum ) was more than offset by a crisp rise in oil grosss, ensuing in a farther physique up of the net foreign assets of the Central Bank of Libya ( CBL ) and the Libyan Investment Authority ( LIA ) to about US $ 136A billion.

Broad money growing accelerated to about 48 per centum in 2008, reflecting the significant addition in net foreign assets and the rapid addition in public outgo, including on-lending by the Specialized Credit Institutions ( SCIs ) . The latter accounted for about 50 per centum of outstanding recognition. Bank recognition to the economic system increased by about 12.5 per centum. Bank sedimentations rose by about 70A per centum. They largely constitute of demand sedimentations of public entities.

Bank restructuring and denationalization are doing advancement. An plus direction company to cover with bad loans has been established, capital demands are being raised, and smaller Bankss are being encouraged to seek well-established foreign strategic spouses. The CBL licensed two new Bankss with foreign engagement. In add-on, the governments privatized 15 per centum of one of the staying two big public Bankss by publishing an IPO.

Advancement has been made in imposts and revenue enhancement disposal. Large taxpayers offices have been established and imposts review is being automated. However, the “ service fee ” on imports has late been increased from 4 to 10 per centum, and other ear-marked fees remain in topographic point.

Executive Board Assessment

Executive Directors welcomed Libya ‘s solid macroeconomic public presentation and the of import advancement in implementing structural reforms, peculiarly in the fiscal sector. The impact of the planetary crisis on Libya has been limited to diminutions in oil gross, and non-oil growing has remained floaty. Libya ‘s medium-term mentality continues to be favourable. Directors underscored the importance of farther attempts to turn to extra liquidness, better public fiscal direction, and advance structural reforms that would back up the governments ‘ purpose to diversify the economic system off from oil and advance the function of the private sector.

Directors noted that the governments ‘ overall financial stance work stoppages an appropriate balance between short- and long-run considerations, and that the little diminution in public outgo planned forA 2009 is a clear interruption with the big additions in recent old ages. They encouraged stronger attempts to better the quality and composing of outgo, and limit the growing of current outgo. Directors welcomed the governments ‘ determination to prorogue the execution of the Wealth Distribution Program.

Directors considered it important to progress the attempts to beef up public fiscal direction. The recent meeting of the ministries of finance and planning is an of import measure in this way. Directors endorsed the authorities ‘s purpose to set up a Treasury Single Account to heighten hard currency direction and outgo control and to better coordination of financial and pecuniary policies. Traveling frontward, overhauling the budget ‘s legal and administrative model to cut down extra-budgetary financess would heighten budget transparence and effectivity. Directors encouraged the governments to go on to heighten the legal and operational model of the Libyan Investment Authority. To best function its nucleus aims, the focal point should be on conservative investings abroad.

Directors welcomed the purpose of the Central Bank of Libya ( CBL ) to widen the adulthoods scope of its certifications of sedimentation and develop an auction mechanism for them. The on-going attempts to overhaul the CBL and heighten the payments system will set up the substructure to back up the design and execution of pecuniary policy. To turn to big extra liquidness in the banking system, precedence should be accorded to set uping rapidly the Treasury Single Account and cut downing on-lending by specialised recognition establishments.

Directors commended the progresss made in bank denationalization and restructuring. In peculiar, they welcomed the recent constitution of an plus direction company to cover with bad loans, and the partial denationalization of the largest public bank. Directors welcomed the on-going attempts to farther enhance supervisory coverage, on-site supervising techniques, and ordinances and criterions.

Directors agreed that the dinar ‘s nog to the Particular Drawing Right ( SDR ) continues to function Libya good. They noted that, while the dinar appears to be reasonably overvalued, this is likely to be partially ephemeral in position of the jutting diminution in the external current history excess.

Directors recognized the considerable advancement achieved in liberalising and opening the economic system, supported by Fund proficient aid. They encouraged continued attempts to heighten the regulative model in order to further better the concern clime and advance private sector activity. The welcome strengthening in imposts and revenue enhancement disposal needs to be accompanied by low corporate revenue enhancement and imposts rates, with few brackets and limited freedoms.

Directors encouraged the governments to go on to better economic and fiscal statistics.


Libya ‘s outgrowth as a cardinal jumping-off point for entry into Europe by sea has created a sense of urgency within the EU, which seeks to forestall reachings from this new point of going, and has led to the induction of EU-Libya cooperation on migration. This article argues that the EU is neglecting to follow an incorporate attack to migration direction in Libya, despite its perennial confidences to the contrary. It examines EU-Libya cooperation, still in its early phases, and analyses the experiences of refugees and migrators in Libya and on their journeys to Europe. Both elements strongly indicate that the current attack, which focuses on boundary line control and surveillance, is likely to run into with limited success in accomplishing the EU ‘s purposes of stemming the flow of irregular migrators geting from Libya in Italy and Malta, protecting the human rights of those in theodolite and guaranting human-centered results for them.

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