Abstraction: Our survey used the ArcGIS Network Analyst to analyze the service countries of fire halls in selected municipalities in the Greater Vancouver Regional District. We examined how population denseness in Census Dissemination Blocks and the jutting population addition in 2041 will impact the service countries of the current fire hall locations. Our end of this undertaking was to analyze the current service country ( with the 2011 population ) and how it might alter in 2041. The consequences of our analysis show that the service countries will be significantly reduced in 2041 due to population addition in all of the municipalities in our survey country. Our analysis shows that Surrey and Richmond, the municipalities that experience the most decrease in service country extent, are besides those that will hold the highest population growing. Coquitlam will besides see these two effects but to a lesser extent. We conclude, that by 2041, a important figure of people will populate outside of the four-minute service country in several municipalities and that, in order to extenuate this, these municipalities will either hold to relocate some of the bing fire halls or construct new fire halls to keep this indispensable service to those in demand.
Keywords: GVRD, Great Vancouver, service country, fire halls, response clip, population
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Our undertaking aims to carry on an analysis of fire hall response times in seven municipalities in the Greater Vancouver Regional District ( GVRD ) : Vancouver, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Richmond, Delta, Surrey and White Rock ( Figure 1 ) . As stated in Metro Vancouver, the population is projected to turn by 1.2 million occupants between 2006 and 2041 for a sum of 3.4 million ( Metro Vancouver 2006-2041, 2011 ) . Harmonizing to the Regional Transportation Strategy, more trips and paths will be accessed by theodolite, walking and cycling in 2040 ( Transport 2040, 2008 ) . These assorted options offer occupants flexible ways to transpose. There are typically multiple paths to most countries within a municipality which gives commuters more options when congestion occurs. Therefore, the force per unit area of traffic congestion due to population growing may non hold a important impact on fire deliverance response. As population continues to increase throughout the GVRD, fire services will still hold to seek to maintain up and offer appropriate service to as many people as possible. If population additions dramatically, how will this impact the response clip of the fire halls in the GVRD? This is the chief inquiry we are inquiring and upon which we base our undertaking. Harmonizing to international criterions, exigency fire response should get within a few proceedingss of the call for aid. For case, one-year study of Toronto Fire Service ( 2005 ) has a end of four proceedingss in response clip within 90 % of the clip. With this in head, we have obtained the necessary informations ( see Methodology subdivision ) and manipulated it utilizing ESRI ‘s ArcGIS plan to make service country maps ( see Results subdivision ) , that show countries along the GVRD route web that can be reached by fire crews within this clip frame.
Another facet of our undertaking was to demo the population denseness at the airing block degree within each municipality and how this affects the service countries. For our analysis, we have borrowed the same premise made by Mec et. Al. ( 2007 ) from Fire Station Location Analysis that states: as population additions, the route web becomes more engorged. This ultimately increases the clip it takes to go along a given route and therefore reduces the service country, potentially go forthing people who were originally within four proceedingss of a fire hall outside of the new service country. We have used population informations from 2011 ( Scenario 2 ) and so used projected population Numberss for 2041 harmonizing to Metro Vancouver ( 2009 ) to demo how population addition will change current service countries ( Scenario 3 ) . Further inside informations on the informations and informations use techniques can be found in the Methodology subdivision and a elaborate treatment on our findings and consequences can be found in the Discussion subdivision.
Network Analyst was able to make a service country around installations on a web surface and a bed of service country included the coverage distance or country that a vehicle travels within a determined clip interval. In order to happen a service country, a Network Dataset which contained route web and travel times for each section of route was required from the original route shapefile. Network Datasats were important and this measure was repeated one time in each scenario. To get down our analysis, fire hall references were attained from the web sites of each municipality. A geolocator was built to turn up all the fire halls in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Delta, Richmond, Surrey, Vancouver and White Rock. A web dataset was produced from the GVRD Street Shapefile. Scenario 1 ( Figure 2 ) does non take into history population denseness and how this might impact traffic congestion and finally the response times.
For Scenario 2 as demonstrated in Figure 3, a population denseness map was created utilizing population informations from Statistics Canada and reclassified to moo ( less than 3,000 people per square kilometre ) , medium ( 3,000 to 20,000 people per square kilometre ) and high ( more than 20,000 people per square kilometre ) and so joined with the original street file. Travel times were so recalculated. Travel times were non changed for countries in the low denseness category. Travel times were multiplied by 1.25 for countries in the medium denseness category and by 1.5 for countries in the high denseness category. These density-dependent congestion factors were derived from analyses presented in Demographia ( n.d. ) . With these new travel times, a new Network Dataset was created utilizing the same method as mentioned.
For Scenario 3 ( Figure 4 ) , new travel times were manipulated and recalculated once more but this clip taking into history the projected population in 2041 harmonizing to Metro 2040 ( 2009 ) projections. With these projected population Numberss and the population Numberss from 2011, we easy calculated the per cent alteration and from this we calculated new travel times following the method of Mec et al. , ( 2007 ) , which designates that a per cent alteration in population of x in a population will ensue in the travel times being increased by 1.x. With these new travel times taking into history the jutting 2041 population counts, a 3rd Network Dataset was created and from this. Once all three service countries were created, we calculate the figure of people that autumn outside of the four-minute response clip in Scenario 2 and 3. We dissolved the service country into one polygon and overlaid it onto the entire population and population denseness maps. We were able to compare the entire population or the population denseness inside and outside of the survey country. For more inside informations on our computations and concluding Numberss, see our Result & A ; Discussion subdivision.
While we felt that our survey is accurate in demoing countries that fall in and out of fire hall service countries in different population scenarios, we have adopted a simplified attack and accordingly, there were some countries of mistake and uncertainness. Due to the nature of the vector street bed, some streets were displayed with dual lines. When running the Network Analyst tool in all three scenarios, service countries around four fire halls ( 199 Main St, 1090 Haro Street, 895 Hamilton St and 775 Marine Way ) were unable to be calculated. As a consequence, these installations were relocated to the nearest available intersections and when we ran the tool once more, we were able to cipher service countries for all fire halls in the survey country.
Census informations at the airing block degree is suppressed when the population in a block is below 15. This is done in order to keep confidentiality and the privateness of those that live at that place ; hence, our population Numberss, though near, are non rather 100 % accurate.
As outlined in our methodological analysis, we reclassified the population densities into low, medium, and high categories that we so used to recalculate the travel times of the route web. These categories are slightly arbitrary and are slackly based upon Demographia ( n.d. ) . Changing these category ranges would potentially ensue in different service countries. The generation factors we used when recalculating the travel times could besides be different, which would finally change the service countries as good.
In our analysis, we besides assumed that population addition was homogeneous throughout each airing block. This may non be wholly accurate in all blocks since some may hold unfastened countries, Parkss or other land usage types where people do non populate. We besides adopted the method of Mec et Al. ( 2007 ) , Fire Station in that, as population additions by a certain per cent, the travel times of the roads within each country will besides increase by that same per cent. This is debatable because once more, the per cent population addition is an norm for the full municipality and does non reflect countries that may increase at much higher rates or countries that could potentially lose people to out migration or other factors. Another facet of this issue is that when wipe outing the service countries from the seven municipalities, some airing blocks were merely partly erased but the country that remained was still assigned the entire population as if it had n’t been divided. It is possible that the country that remained, in world, had merely a fraction of the original population, therefore our computations for the figure of people who will non be within the four-minute service country are in some instances a simplified consequence.
Other restrictions of our analysis include the deficiency of existent traffic informations. This information could hold enabled a more elaborate and precise analysis when making and changing our service countries, particularly when sing the major roadways throughout our survey country. We besides assume that the fire halls will stay where they are, and we do non take into history possible technological progresss in fire service equipment. We besides assume that fire service demand is homogeneous throughout the survey country. While high rise or multi-unit homes may hold more demand than individual household places, we assume that all edifice types portion the same hazard. It should besides be noted that the municipalities to the West of Coquitlam that are outside of our survey country will doubtless hold their ain fire halls that may be able to make some of the countries that are shown to be outside of the four-minute service country. A more complete appraisal that includes the other municipalities in GVRD could potentially unclutter this up.
Results & A ; Discussion
What our maps show are how the service countries around the fire halls alteration as the population additions and finally increases the travel times along the route web. Figure 2 shows the coverage when population is non considered and merely considers the mean travel clip for each route section. Figure 3, by contrast, shows the service countries when population harmonizing to the 2011 Canadian Census is considered. In this scenario, travel times were multiplied based on our categorization of low, medium, and high population densenesss at the airing block degree in each municipality. The difference between these two maps is non important except in little countries where the extent of the four-minute service countries is minimally reduced. This is merely due to the low multiplying factors we used every bit mentioned in our Methodology subdivision.
The most important difference between the three scenarios can be clearly seen in Scenario 3 where we consider the projected population in 2041. In this scenario we multiplied the travel times from Scenario 2 by a factor that was equal to the per cent alteration in population for each municipality ( see Appendix B belowA for the multiplying factors ) . In every municipality except Vancouver, which merely lost coverage in one comparatively little country, many big countries lost coverage. Richmond ( 24.5 % in 2011 to 77.0 % in 2041 ) , Coquitlam ( 34.7 % in 2011 to 72.7 % in 2041 ) , Surrey ( 7.8 % in 2011 to 44.5 % in 2041 ) , and Delta ( 12.0 % in 2011 to 60.8 % in 2041 ) in peculiar lost the most. For the first three, this is disturbing because these municipalities are projected to see the most population addition by 2041 ( 44 % , 77 % and 58 % severally ) . Burnaby is among these as good ( 55 % population addition by 2041 ) and, though the figure of people who will be outside the service country will non increase every bit dramatically as the others ( 5.8 % in 2011 to 24.6 % in 2041 ) , it excessively will see a important alteration. Delta and White Rock will see population addition at lower rates, 23 % and 40 % severally, but both will lose a considerable sum of country within the service country, Delta significantly ( 12.0 % in 2011 to 60.8 % in 2041 ) . A sum-up of population alteration and per cent alteration in the figure of people covered by the service countries can be seen in Appendix C and D below.
The ground the service country is so significantly reduced in the 2041 population scenario is doubtless due to the higher generation factors we used. This is potentially debatable as explained in our premise under ‘Methodology ‘ subdivision below. In footings of why Delta loses so much country despite merely sing a modest population addition of 23 % , this could be due to another factor other than the altered travel times of the roads. It could hold something to make with the route web design, or possibly where the current population densenesss are higher and where the growing will happen ( see premises under ‘Methodology ‘ below ) . These factors would impact the service countries in any of the other municipalities as good, but an analysis of these factors fall outside of our aim for this undertaking.
Figure 5 demonstrated a comparing of fire hall service country and entire population in 2011 and the jutting population in 2041. As we can see, entire population additions somewhat in cardinal Vancouver, E of Burnaby, the full Richmond country and parts of Surrey. A By 2041, fire hall service country will merely cover a little per centum of Richmond and it covers merely half of Surrey. In both 2011 and 2014, Coquiltlam is chiefly non covered. The population had been standardized into population denseness and the comparing maps were produced in Figure 6. In the standardised maps, we can clearly see the increased population denseness in these municipalities. Indeed, service country of Coquitlam is about to the full covered in 2011 but half of the country is non covered in 2041. A
For the most portion, countries that are outside of the service countries are present because there are no roads taking into those topographic points. By comparing our service country with the land usage bed produced by DMTI, we discovered these countries are Parkss and recreational countries, unfastened country or resource and industrial countries. Large proportion of unfastened and resource country are peculiarly evident in Delta where the service country is clearly confined to the corridors of the few roads that are present at that place. There is besides huge parkland in the North of Coquitlam so it makes sense that the extent of the service countries does non make these countries. Besides, south and eastern parts of Richmond along with little pockets of land in south-central Surrey are farmland countries, so the extent of the service countries will non make these countries. However, as seen in the Entire Population and Population Density maps for both the 2011 and 2041 scenarios, it is clear that with population addition in the following few decennaries, some countries, chiefly in Coquitlam, Richmond, and Surrey, where population addition is projected to be the highest, will be outside the four-minute response clip. By 2041, these three municipalities, along with Delta, will hold half of their population populating outside of an appropriate fire response country. It appears that Vancouver ‘s coverage will merely be reduced somewhat ; this could be due to the figure and strategic location of its fire halls. While Surrey has plentifulness of fire halls, their arrangement may non be as strategically located as Vancouver ‘s. Therefore, the chief difference between Vancouver ‘s and Surrey ‘s coverage is the really high population addition in Surrey and the consequence this has on the travel times.
From our analysis, it becomes clear that with population addition and the end point route web travel times increase, exigency response is slowed. With our consequences, it ‘s clear that some municipalities in the GVRD will hold to do some serious determinations in the coming decennaries on how to extenuate the inevitable loss of coverage by their fire halls and on how to extinguish the hazard to people who live in the underserviced countries of non being helped in a timely mode.
From our analysis we have created service countries that represent the country, based on one, two, three, and four-minute clip intervals that fire halls in choice municipalities in the GVRD can cover. We have shown how these service countries are altered when sing population densenesss at current ( 2011 Census ) degrees and at projected 2041 population degrees. We have besides identified the countries that will be most affected in footings of fire response coverage due to population addition in the coming decennaries. Although there are some beginnings of uncertainness and parts of our methodological analysis were generalized and slightly simplified, we believe we have been successful in our aim and our methods show some interesting, and in some countries refering, consequences.
There are a few ways in which this undertaking could be expanded and improved upon. First, farther analysis could supply suggestions for locations of new fire halls or possible resettlement sites in order to maximise the service country coverage across the survey country. Second, a elaborate analysis of the route web design in each municipality could be conducted to see if this has an impact on travel times. Looking at current traffic informations could besides better the travel clip computations, particularly along the major route ways that are congested for several hours each twenty-four hours. Finally, including the other municipalities in the GVRD would make a more comprehensive survey of the Lower Mainland of British Columbia.
We would wish to thank Alejandro Cervantes for the helpful counsel and lab aid during theA semester, and besides profoundly appreciate our teacher Brian Klinkenberg and Victor Ngo for their deliberate redaction.