Us Dollar And Turkish Lira Exchange Rate Economics Essay

September 5, 2017 Economics

In finance, the exchange rates which are besides known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate between two currencies is how much one currency is deserving in footings of the other. In other words, it is the value of a foreign state ‘s currency in footings of the place state ‘s currency. Furthermore, the foreign exchange market is considered as one of the largest markets ruling in the universe, and about about 3.2 trillion USD of currency alterations minutess takes topographic point every twenty-four hours. Specific currencies become more valuable when demand for it is greater than its supply. On the other manus, it will go less valuable or in other words it will deprecate whenever demand becomes lower than its supply. Investors all over the universe will likely take to purchase certain currencies merely if the return on this peculiar currency is high. Therefore, the higher the states involvement rate, the greater will be the demand for that states currency.

We chose to compare the $ U.S against the Turkish Lira as we know that Meleagris gallopavo is a really strong state with a floating currency ; that is, non fixed exchange rate. Turkey is good known and popular for exporting fabrics and apparels all over the universe and taking to consideration its past history at a phase in clip it had ruled many parts of the universe and so it was among the most powerful states governing most of the Arab states. Therefore, we chose to choose the Turkish Lira and compare it to interchange rates of the $ U.S and analyse what events or factors have lead to the depreciation or the grasp of the Turkish lira.

Our purpose in this research undertaking is to develop a general apprehension of the forex market universe and be able to compare and analyse different markets in the exchange market every bit good as associating national and international events and factors lending to the success or the failure of a peculiar currency. Furthermore, we will derive the cognition of tips of smart international concern activities such as currency exchange investings for case when to purchase or sell certain goods under certain currencies.

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Turkey Economy Overview:

Government Type: Parliamentary, Representative, Democracy.

Currency: Turkish Lira

“ Turkey economic is mostly dominated by modern industries and the services sector. Besides, it ‘s one of the taking states in universe in manufacturers of agricultural merchandises ; fabrics ; motor vehicles, ships and other transit equipment ; building stuffs ; consumer electronics and place contraptions and they import non-auto consumer goods, fuels, production machinery and equipment, non-fuel industrial supplies, motor vehicles and parts, nutrient, provender and drinks to spouse in European Union, China, Canada, Mexico and Japan Furthermore, the gross domestic merchandise it worth in December 2099 -6.50 % -7.00 % Jun 2009 of the universe economic system, harmonizing to the World Bank.[ 1 ]

Turkey Inflation rate:

Year

Inflation rate

2003

45.20 %

2004

25.30 %

2005

9.30 %

2006

8.20 %

2007

9.80 %

2008

8.70 %

2009

10.40 %

Table Beginning: IndexMundi ( 2009 ) . Turkey Inflation rate ( consumer monetary values ) . Retrieved on 8-12-2009. hypertext transfer protocol: //www.indexmundi.com/turkey/inflation_rate_ ( consumer_prices ) .html

As we can see from the tabular array above, the Turkish lira rising prices rate has experienced a noticeable disinflation rates which is defined as the deceleration in the rate of the rising prices every bit good as a singular diminution in the volatility of rising prices which is due to some factors such as tight financial and pecuniary policies. However, antecedently since the 1970 ‘s and the 1990 ‘s the Turkish lira had been deprecating in its currency value due to turkey ‘s changeless rising prices.

US Economy Overview:

Government Type: Constitution-based federal democracy ; strong democratic tradition.

Currency: US Dollars.

“ The economic history of the United States has the largest national economic system in the universe in both nominal and buying power para. In add-on, US have a stable overall GDP growing rate, a low unemployment rate, and high degrees of research and capital investing. The United States Gross Domestic Product is deserving in December 2009 -1.90 % September 2009 -2.50 % of the universe economic system, harmonizing to the World Bank. The US has several export & A ; import ; foremost the export is machinery and equipment, industrial supplies, non-auto consumer goods, motor vehicles and parts, aircraft and parts, nutrient, provender and drink to spouse Canada, European Union, Mexico, China and Japan. In add-on, US import non-auto consumer goods, fuels, production machinery and equipment, non-fuel industrial supplies, motor vehicles and parts, nutrient, provender and drinks. To the Main import spouses are: European Union, China, Canada, and Mexico and Japan[ 2 ]“ .

U.S rising prices rate:

Year

Inflation rate

2003

2.27 %

2004

2.68 %

2005

3.39 %

2006

3.24 %

2007

2.85 %

2008

3.85 %

2009

N/A,0.03 % ( Jan 2009 )

Table Beginning: InflationData.com ( 2003- 2009 ) . Inflation Rate in Percent

for Jan 2000-Present. Retrieved on 8-12-2009. hypertext transfer protocol: //www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

On the other manus, U.S.A seems to hold similar rising prices rates across the old ages, as the U.S economic system is considered to be the largest in the universe.

Forex rate system used in Turkey:

“ Turkey ‘s exchange rate has been altering over the past old ages and this can be related to its economic system validated in many ways. In 1990-1997 Turkey exchange rate system was considered as a creep set which means that the “ Currency is maintained within certain fluctuation borders around a cardinal rate is adjusted sporadically a fixed preannounce rate or in response to alter in selective quantitative indexs[ 3 ]“ .

However the exchange rate in 1998 -2000 was creeping nog which define as the “ currency is adjusted sporadically in little sum at a fixed preannounce rate or in response to alter in selective quantitative index.[ 4 ]

Since 2001 the exchange rate alteration to independent drifting which can be defined as “ the exchange rate is market determine with any foreign exchange intercession aimed to chairing the rate of alteration and forestalling undue fluctuation in the exchange rate instead than at set uping a degree for it[ 5 ]. ” This alteration has taken topographic point after the fiscal crisis the state had at the same clip which result the Turkish lira to deprecate against the euro.[ 6 ]

“ After carry oning Turkey the floating exchange rate system had lost more than 50 % of the Turkish lira value. Therefore the lira appreciated in the mid of 2002 ; nevertheless their sensitiveness fluctuated in the exchange rate. After this grasp, the lira depreciated once more due to the Iraq crisis. On the other manus the Turkey authorities takes some action to forestall the lira and its economic system from certain events such as exchanging to formal rising prices mark government. On 2006 the cardinal bank implemented the formal rising prices mark and it used the involvement rate as a short instrument which was the consequence to deprecate the lira once more.[ 7 ]

Forex rate system used in United states:

As a affair of fact, the U.S chiefly went through two different exchange rate governments. The first referred to what is normally known as the Bretton forests system of fixed exchange rates and this has been the period from 1958 boulder clay 1973. However, after that period and until this twenty-four hours the exchange rate government is referred to as the managed drifting.The foremost, which lasted efficaciously from December 1958 to March 1973, was the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates. In the second, which began in March 1973 and has continued to the present, exchange rates have been capable to pull off drifting which is characterized by fluctuating exchange rates on a day-to-day footing nevertheless they are affected by the intercession of the U.S cardinal bank in order to stabilise their currency by purchasing and selling their ain currency.

Turkish Lira history:

First lira

“ Turkish lira is the currency of Meleagris gallopavo that is subdivided into 100 Kurus. Turkish lira ‘s symbol is TL and harmonizing to the international criterion its codification is TRY. Turkish lira had experienced many troubles and alterations in its history. To get down with, the Bimetallism system was adopted in Meleagris gallopavo between 1881 and 1884. “ Bimetallism refers to the fact that the state maps on a dual criterion in other words both gold and Ag were used. Harmonizing to Meleagris gallopavo at that clip: 1 lira = 519 gms pure gold = 99.8292 gms pure Ag[ 8 ]. ”

“ Then, the classical gold criterion was adopted in Meleagris gallopavo from 1881 until the 1914. Gold criterion means that “ under this peculiar criterion the exchange rate between any two currencies will be determined merely by their comparative gold contents.[ 9 ]“ However this system vanished and the gold lira was deserving nine lira money. As a consequence, and after all those alterations that took topographic point in Meleagris gallopavo ‘s pecuniary system, they pegged to British lb, so to French France, and eventually to U.S.A dollars[ 10 ]. ”

This tabular array bellows represent the exchange rate of Meleagris gallopavo to U.SA dollar in several old ages: –

1966

1 U.S. dollar

= 9 lira

1980

1 U.S. dollar

= 90 lira

1988

1 U.S. dollar

= 1,300 lira

1995

1 U.S. dollar

= 45,000 lira

1996

1 U.S. dollar

= 107,000 lira

2001

1 U.S. dollar

= 1,650,000 lira

2004

1 U.S. dollar

= 1,350,000 lira

2007

1 U.S. dollar

= 1,260,000 ( old ) lira = 1.26 new Lira

2008

1 U.S. dollar

= 1,550,000 ( old ) lira = 1.55 Lira

2009

1 U.S. dollar

= 1,480,000 ( old ) lira = 1.48 Lira ( Last updated on September 16th, 2009

Table Beginning: Wikipedia ( 2009 ) . Turkish lira. Retrieved on 8-11-2009. hypertext transfer protocol: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_lira

Second lira: –

“ After all the troubles in January 2005 six nothings has been deleted from the lira currency and the Turkish lira by and large became the official currency and unit of payment in Meleagris gallopavo. The classs of liras book notes were 1, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100. In add-on the coins Category were 1, 5,10,20,50,100.[ 11 ]

“ As a affair of fact, a batch of states bead nothing ( s ) from their currency in order to ease their minutess and avoid any errors.

“ Droping six nothings and the attempt to worsen the rising prices impact on the currency is a utile manner for Meleagris gallopavo to hold a good repute in its lira currency. Therefore dropping the zero from its currency had reduced the errors and jobs that had arisen in the computation side and record jobs. In short, the passage to the New Turkish lira was necessary both for the expected positive effects on the currency, every bit good as for its repute. Furthermore, the New Turkish Lira is considered besides as a symbol or a mark of Turkey ‘s finding to cut down rising prices.[ 12 ]

Turkish Lira against the U.S. Dollar during the past 5 Y

The below graph demonstrate the behaviour of the exchange rate of Turkish Lira against the U.S. Dollar during the past 5 old ages, which reflects the economic state of affairs in both states.

Table Beginning: Yokel! finance ( 2009 ) . TRY/USD ( TRYUSD=X ) . Retrieved on 8-12-2009. hypertext transfer protocol: //finance.yahoo.com/q/bc? s=TRYUSD=X & A ; t=5y & A ; l=on & A ; z=m & A ; q=l & A ; degree Celsiuss

Table sketching the exchange rates desired on a day-to-day footing:

In our research, we are traveling to analyze the exchange rate fluctuation between the Turkish Lira ( TL ) and the U.S Dollar ( USD ) during the period from 14 September to 4 December 2009. Our survey depends on utilizing the day-to-day informations of FX of TL against the USD and will concentrate on analysing the factors and events that affect the exchange rate and construing the causes of fluctuation during the period of survey.

Date

TRL

Us Equivalent

9/14/2009

1TRL=

0.6682

USD

9/15/2009

1TRL=

0.67643

USD

9/16/2009

1TRL=

0.67963

USD

9/17/2009

1TRL=

0.67979

USD

9/18/2009

1TRL=

0.67503

USD

9/19/2009

1TRL=

0.67522

USD

9/20/2009

1TRL=

0.67454

USD

9/21/2009

1TRL=

0.67111

USD

9/22/2009

1TRL=

0.67638

USD

9/23/2009

1TRL=

0.67347

USD

9/24/2009

1TRL=

0.67136

USD

9/25/2009

1TRL=

0.67193

USD

9/26/2009

1TRL=

0.6719

USD

9/27/2009

1TRL=

0.67264

USD

9/28/2009

1TRL=

0.66951

USD

9/29/2009

1TRL=

0.6698

USD

9/30/2009

1TRL=

0.67334

USD

10/01/2009

1TRL=

0.6664

USD

10/02/2009

1TRL=

0.66895

USD

10/03/2009

1TRL=

0.66902

USD

10/04/2009

1TRL=

0.66988

USD

10/05/2009

1TRL=

0.67486

USD

10/06/2009

1TRL=

0.681

USD

10/07/2009

1TRL=

0.67931

USD

10/08/2009

1TRL=

0.68424

USD

10/09/2009

1TRL=

0.68204

USD

10/10/2009

1TRL=

0.68149

USD

10/11/2009

1TRL=

0.68169

USD

10/12/2009

1TRL=

0.68576

USD

10/13/2009

1TRL=

0.68644

USD

10/14/2009

1TRL=

0.69204

USD

10/15/2009

1TRL=

0.69167

USD

10/16/2009

1TRL=

0.68384

USD

10/17/2009

1TRL=

0.68456

USD

10/18/2009

1TRL=

0.68436

USD

10/19/2009

1TRL=

0.68823

USD

10/20/2009

1TRL=

0.68125

USD

10/21/2009

1TRL=

0.6823

USD

10/22/2009

1TRL=

0.68194

USD

10/23/2009

1TRL=

0.67891

USD

10/24/2009

1TRL=

0.67891

USD

10/25/2009

1TRL=

0.67887

USD

10/26/2009

1TRL=

0.6819

USD

10/27/2009

1TRL=

0.66872

USD

10/28/2009

1TRL=

0.66272

USD

10/29/2009

1TRL=

0.67066

USD

10/30/2009

1TRL=

0.66326

USD

10/31/2009

1TRL=

0.66656

USD

11/01/2009

1TRL=

0.6619

USD

11/02/2009

1TRL=

0.66516

USD

11/03/2009

1TRL=

0.66439

USD

11/04/2009

1TRL=

0.66952

USD

11/05/2009

1TRL=

0.67248

USD

11/06/2009

1TRL=

0.6742

USD

11/06/2009

1TRL=

0.6742

USD

11/08/2009

1TRL=

0.67362

USD

11/09/2009

1TRL=

0.67848

USD

11/10/2009

1TRL=

0.67672

USD

11/11/2009

1TRL=

0.67731

USD

11/12/2009

1TRL=

0.67304

USD

11/13/2009

1TRL=

0.67564

USD

11/14/2009

1TRL=

0.67564

USD

11/15/2009

1TRL=

0.6759

USD

11/16/2009

1TRL=

0.67752

USD

11/17/2009

1TRL=

0.6747

USD

11/18/2009

1TRL=

0.67453

USD

11/19/2009

1TRL=

0.66988

USD

11/20/2009

1TRL=

0.66688

USD

11/21/2009

1TRL=

.66731

USD

11/22/2009

1TRL=

.66616

USD

11/23/2009

1TRL=

.66685

USD

11/24/2009

1TRL=

.66730

USD

11/25/2009

1TRL=

.67053

USD

11/26/2009

1TRL=

.65330

USD

11/27/2009

1TRL=

.65545

USD

11/28/2009

1TRL=

.65323

USD

11/29/2009

1TRL=

.65821

USD

11/30/2009

1TRL=

.65379

USD

12/1/2009

1TRL=

.66554

USD

12/2/2009

1TRL=

.66552

USD

12/3/2009

1TRL=

.67296

USD

12/4/2009

1TRL=

.66901

USD

Table Beginning: exchange-rates.org. ( 2009 ) . 1 Turkish Lira ( TRY ) to Dollars ( USD ) Retrieved on. 6-10-2009. hypertext transfer protocol: //www.exchange-rates.org/history/USD/TRY/T

The exchange rates graph on a day-to-day footing:

Analysis of national and international events lending to consequences we obtained from the graph:

17 September to 1 October

As observed from the graph, the Turkish Lira had a downward sloping against the US Dollar get downing from 17th September to 1st October 2009 ; this may be due to the fallowing factors and events.

Events: –

Turkish bond outputs rose on due to concerns about the state ‘s widening budget shortage

Decrease in Turkey ‘s GDP which has lead to the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the $ U.S.

“ Turkey seeks commands for sugar mills. Turkey is selling six mills that produce sugar to finance the planetary decelerate down economic system. Turkey besides seeking to cut down the authorities control in its economic system. However this event will prove Meleagris gallopavo denationalization[ 13 ]. ”

Factors: –

September 2009 Balance of Payment

Budget of the authorities: The current history shortage realized a immense addition by 60.5 % from 558 in August 2009 to 869 in September 2009. This reflects the addition on the state expenditures over grosss that negatively affected the TL exchange rate

“ The degree of the state trade: The shortage of the goods and services increased by 18 % , which is a mean of addition of TL supply over demand that is reflected negatively on the TL exchange rate, and put a force per unit area on the TL to deprecate against US Dollar.[ 14 ]

US rising prices decreased from -8.90 in June to -9.90 in September. Therefore US $ appreciated over the TL.

“ Turkey ‘s industrial production fell by 8.6 % in the twelvemonth to September. The biggest diminution was in the production of capital goods, the end product of which fell by 18.2 % .[ 15 ]

1 October to 15-October: –

During this period our graph way went up due to the below factors and events

Events: –

In October 2009 the one-year meeting of the World Bank held in Istanbul, this was the fist clip the meeting being held in a state other than the United State.

“ The state mentality evaluation of Turkey mentality has been upgraded by the two evaluation bureaus Moody and Standard & A ; Poor peoples. In add-on to that, there is a strong chance to upgrade Fitch evaluation bureau of the Turkey mentality evaluation. This is due to Turkey ‘s policies in managing the fiscal crisis and its ability to implement policies to stabilise the economic system.[ 16 ]

Factors: –

Inflation: the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey decreased the rising prices rate from 5.27 in September to 5.08 in October 2009. This is considered a positive index that leads investors to put in TL, accordingly, TL appreciated. We can detect that the Turkish Lira firmed in October than its public presentation in September against the US dollar and this was due to the fact that the cardinal Bank of Turkey stated that the one-year rising prices in October would be low despite the terminal of stimulus revenue enhancement cuts on lasting goods and a close 10 per centum hiking in power monetary values.

16 October to 28 October: –

During this Period our graph has a downwards inclining due to the below factors and events.

Factors: –

Interest rate: a Central Bank of Turkey lowered its involvement rate from 7.75 in September. To 6.75 in October 2009. As a consequence the TL depreciated ay the beginning of October reflecting the outlooks of the investors that the currency will hold downward way.

Budget: Finance minster of Turkey stated that Turkey end-2009 budget shortage of 62.8 billion lira ( $ 43.1 billion ) before a autumn to 50.1 billion lira in 2010 which affect TL negatively.

29 October to 8 November:

As the Graph show the TL lira appreciate in this period due to some factors and events.

Events: –

As reported in Turkey newspaper four functionaries at the revenue enhancement office were suited for amendss caused by the record revenue enhancement office the instance was brought by the media group.

Factors: –

Oil: the petroleum oil monetary values went up on November 2009 this is in index that investors shift their investing from dollars to oil taking dollars monetary values down, consequently TL appreciated against US dollars.

US dollar: Federal Reserve on Wednesday 5th November offered a cautiousness economic mentality and kept adoption costs nigh zero as a consequence the US dollar depreciated and the TL appreciates.

The Turkish bank Turkey Ekonomi Bankasi have reach 47 % rise of net income which leads to upward TL sloping.

9-Novamber to 25 November

The graph illustrate that the TL has been depreciated in this period for those factors and events.

Factors

Fiscal stableness study: the CBRT has published the fiscal stableness study, the study indicates that Turkey economic system would detect a slow betterment, and in Bankss profitableness degrees in 2010 would diminish. Harmonizing to the study the ingestion degrees is expected diminution which will take to take down the investing expenditures. This intelligence has affected the public assurance in the economic system of Meleagris gallopavo and resulted in a diminution of the TL exchange rate.

Unemployment rates: Harmonizing the Hurriyet Turkish intelligence paper unemployment rate job would still turn and would non be solved anytime shortly. This is besides a negative index that TL value will worsen.

US Gross Domestic Merchandise: The 3rd one-fourth economic system statistics of the US have been published on 24 November 2009, it shows that the US GDP has increased at an one-year rate of 2.8 % , this addition in US GDP is a consequence of the positive parts from personal ingestion outgos ( PCE ) , exports, private stock list investing, federal authorities disbursement, and residential fixed investing that were partially offset by a negative part from nonresidential fixed investing. As a consequence USD gained more assurance and rose against the TL.

26 November – to 30 November

As the graph shown in this period the TL has a downward swill which is the most negatively inclining at the analysis period of our undertaking.

Events: –

From 27 to 30 November Turkey authorities and concern sector had a public vacation to detect the juncture of Eid Al Adha. The economic system during this period decelerate down and this caused the downward of the TL exchange rate against the USD.

The planetary crisis has hit turkey trade particularly turkey exports to vicinities lessening to 7.7 % as publish in Hurriyet Daily News and Economic.

“ Europium to inquire Turkey to follow a more European Iran policy The European Union welcomes Turkey ‘s stabilising function in the Middle East but feels uneasy with its Iran policy,[ 17 ]

Factors

Oil: Oil monetary value lessenings on 25 of November which attract investor to purchasing oil by dollars as a consequence the TL depreciate.

Inflation: in November the turkey rising prices rate additions from 5.08 on October 2009 to 5.53 in November which lead to deprecate the TL in this clip.

Balance of trade: Turkey balance of trade addition from -2573.0 to -3948.0 shortages which mean that Meleagris gallopavo import addition in November increasing the supply of TL which leads to downward TL.

1 December R to 4 December: –

As we observe after the deep down wards at the terminal of November the TL appreciate at the beginning of December leads to upwards spilling.

Events: –

Turkish intelligence has announced that Turkish loaner Sekerbank has signed a trade loan with the international finance cooperation to finance the agribusiness and nutrients undertaking that deserving 30 1000000s.

Turkey intelligence has announced that Meleagris gallopavo ‘s poorness rate has decreased from 17.79 per centum in 2007 to 17.11 per centum in 2008 ” which leads to strong Turkish lira repute.

Factors

Gold: the gold monetary value addition from 1054.00 on November to 1115.40 on December as a consequence the investor switch their investing way to put more in safe assets which is gilded taking to provide the market by dollars as consequence the dollars depreciate and the TL appreciate.

Government Budget: the Turkey authorities budget has 989.80 excesss on December after holding a budget shortage for the past month. As a consequence the TL appreciated.

Current History: the current has addition from -863.0 on September to 671.0 on December which mean the export is greater than import and the demand of TL is greater than supply taking appreciate TL on December 2009.

Decision: –

In decision, we have benefitted a batch from this survey as we were able to analyse the Turkish lira exchange rate against the U.S Dollar as both economic systems have many factors and events impacting this exchange rate phenomenon such as gold militias, balance of payments of each state, unemployment rates in add-on to rising prices rates, crisis in other states, every bit good as many other deductions.Furthermore, As for the exchange rates instability during the past three months as was required for us to analyse, the Turkish-dollar exchange rates observed several highs and depressions which was by and large due to multiple political, economical, societal factors, and financial pecuniary policies by both states the U.S and Turkey. We benefitted a batch from carry oning this research survey as it gave us the cognition of associating the international and national events with the currency public presentation along with understanding the function of the exchange rate system applied in analysing the grasp every bit good as depreciation of the currency.

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